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Feb 5, 2013
02/13
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the stock market is very close to how the economy grows, and the economy's growing nicely. the other thing i would keep reading about, i listened to nur yule this morning talking about 1.5% growth or 2% growth. i hear everybody say that. that's not the growth. the growth is 6% or 7%. so last year for example the growth in our economy was 6.8%. 15.8 trillion the year before was 14.8 trillion. so what people keep forgetting, they give you real growth, but the nominal growth is the number that is affecting everyone and the stock market, the reason stocks are interesting is they're giving you a hedge against inflation. so inflation is 4% or 5% a year. not 2%. that's how come you have 15.8%, 15.8 trillion dollar gdp to 14.8 trillion a year ago. stocks are the only real hedge against that. so you can invest in vanguard fund and that's the return you get. >> ron it's sorkin. nouriel is still here so let's get your perspective on this. >> i have a question you know the growth rate of the economy was about 3%. some people now worry closer to 2.5% or less. we have public debt as a sh
the stock market is very close to how the economy grows, and the economy's growing nicely. the other thing i would keep reading about, i listened to nur yule this morning talking about 1.5% growth or 2% growth. i hear everybody say that. that's not the growth. the growth is 6% or 7%. so last year for example the growth in our economy was 6.8%. 15.8 trillion the year before was 14.8 trillion. so what people keep forgetting, they give you real growth, but the nominal growth is the number that is...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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stanford say the says holding back the economy, the federal reserve is holding back the economy. >> steve liesman will be along at 7:30 eastern. i don't think he would buy into that. we will be here with the release of cnbc's exclusive fed survey. and from the better late than never file, the senate has approved the long delayed $50.5 billion aid package for the vikt manies of superstorm sandy. the approval comes three months after the storm ravaged the east coast destroying thousands of homes and is business in new york and connecticut and new jersey. nine republicans joined democrats in voting yes on the measure. now president obama must sign it into law, which he is expected to do. senate leaders held up the aid and for wrangling' over the new rules, filibusters and some pork in there and all kinds of stuff. andrew asked me today -- i love this. is it okay to wear a jacket? it's fine to wear a jacket when you want to because of -- he goes, look, this shirt needs a jacket. that begs the question, where do you wear a shirt that needs a jacket to cover it up? >> because it's a different l
stanford say the says holding back the economy, the federal reserve is holding back the economy. >> steve liesman will be along at 7:30 eastern. i don't think he would buy into that. we will be here with the release of cnbc's exclusive fed survey. and from the better late than never file, the senate has approved the long delayed $50.5 billion aid package for the vikt manies of superstorm sandy. the approval comes three months after the storm ravaged the east coast destroying thousands of...
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Feb 6, 2013
02/13
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>> as far as the fed and the economy? >> far as the economy mostly, yeah. >> you know, i think it's -- i need more information. that's the one thing that the fourth quarter gdp and the recent jobs data has made me realize is that i need more information to know. you know, we had the decline in the fourth quarter gdp of .1%. you know, can be sloughed off because it was the fiscal cliff. we can point to the personal consumption being up 2.2. but we don't know how much of that personal consumption was stolen from the first quarter because of the -- the new schedule for dividends and bonuses that were moved ahead in case there was a tax problem. >> right. >> and the other thing -- this ties in directly to the fed, the nominal gdp in the fourth quarter was 0.5%. that's how we get to that real gdp. we take the deflator of .6 and subtract it from the nominal gdp. the nominal gdp of up .5% is the lowest gdp in a non-recession quarter in the post-war period. and so nominal gdp is the -- the proxy for aggregate demand. bernanke is
>> as far as the fed and the economy? >> far as the economy mostly, yeah. >> you know, i think it's -- i need more information. that's the one thing that the fourth quarter gdp and the recent jobs data has made me realize is that i need more information to know. you know, we had the decline in the fourth quarter gdp of .1%. you know, can be sloughed off because it was the fiscal cliff. we can point to the personal consumption being up 2.2. but we don't know how much of that...
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Jan 31, 2013
01/13
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trying to appreciate their economy. i'm not sure if investors in the long run will appreciate the looted currencies. back to you. >> all right. steve, you're digging through? and you were going to tell us beforehand -- >> yeah. i guess you know, joe had asked me if i was ready to glom on. it was two weeks of good numbers so i was very happy about the jobless claims number. but i had shortly thereafter been informed i was wrong about that. it was a seasonal issue, similar to the '08 calendar, timing of different holidays. so i feel like we're back to a 350 range which is the bottom of the range. what we were looking for to say there was some kind of step improvement was a notch down below 350. we're not there. >> but 350 -- >> it would be good. >> that's not a slam dunk that we're there i don't think is it? >> that would be good if we were. >> it would be good if we were there. i think you're right it's not a slam dunk but it feels like it's a little bit lower. >> that number yesterday, what the hell they thinking about?
trying to appreciate their economy. i'm not sure if investors in the long run will appreciate the looted currencies. back to you. >> all right. steve, you're digging through? and you were going to tell us beforehand -- >> yeah. i guess you know, joe had asked me if i was ready to glom on. it was two weeks of good numbers so i was very happy about the jobless claims number. but i had shortly thereafter been informed i was wrong about that. it was a seasonal issue, similar to the '08...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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is that like old economy, new economy? they think we're going to run out of oil. but we never ran out of stone in the stone age but that ended. for me, if i own a millionth of something i think i'd rather own a millionth of exxon on a millionth of apple, wouldn't you? >> i think i could -- i think it makes more sense for exxon to be worth more. the world seems to make more sense. >> ninth century england in running out of coal. they thought it was a huge crisis on the way. >> every -- >> actually the opposite is -- >> a lot of cases. >> we learn how -- >> that's capitalism at its best. >> didn't used to happen. >> right. we got to get through have another one of those moments. >> i'm going to give you a moment. >> let's get to a couple other sorries. we do have a very important update. a suicide bomber has detonated an explosive device at the entrance of the u.s. embassy in the turkish capital of ankara. a police official told the associated press that at least two people are dead. the u.s. ambassador to turkey says that one of the embassy's turkish staffs killed.
is that like old economy, new economy? they think we're going to run out of oil. but we never ran out of stone in the stone age but that ended. for me, if i own a millionth of something i think i'd rather own a millionth of exxon on a millionth of apple, wouldn't you? >> i think i could -- i think it makes more sense for exxon to be worth more. the world seems to make more sense. >> ninth century england in running out of coal. they thought it was a huge crisis on the way. >>...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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now, we're starting to get traction in the economy. the second half growth will be better than the first half and by the end of this year, i think things will look better than today. also, earnings have been flash for the past few quarters and will get traction and even weakness in the dollar will help on the earnings front. nol valuation but earnings front. there is a lot of capacity of different taypes in the labor market and we will have a tremendous boost to earnings and that will power the stock market. >> this is super important. there is no relationship whatsoever between the economy's growth rates and stock market performance. you need to look at china. the economy is growing 7-8% and the stock market fell last year. no relationship. the gdp measures the economy's output and stock market is measuring productivity. >> short term relationship. >> the stock market is the leading indicator -- >> i'm not saying it's not a leading indicator, the stock market can go down and vice-versa. >> i want to say for their record these guys seg
now, we're starting to get traction in the economy. the second half growth will be better than the first half and by the end of this year, i think things will look better than today. also, earnings have been flash for the past few quarters and will get traction and even weakness in the dollar will help on the earnings front. nol valuation but earnings front. there is a lot of capacity of different taypes in the labor market and we will have a tremendous boost to earnings and that will power the...
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Feb 4, 2013
02/13
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and that doesn't bode well for the economy in that 17.5% of the economy is consumption portion of the gdp. >> let me ask this question to the table. does anybody know how easy the fed is right now? in this world where there's no interest rate to gauge it by, no nominal rate to judge it by and compare it to, how easy is the fed such that if we talked about the fed removing accommodation, barry, what does that look like? ian, what does that look like? answer that question, how easy is the fed? >> the balance sheet tells you how easy they are. and the rate of expansion. we've got the stock which is enormous but also increasing by $85 billion a month. >> what would neutral be? >> not -- >> you don't -- >> i can tell you they're very easy but i don't know what neutral is and they don't know either. nobody knows. the only thing i'm pretty sure about is when we eventually go back to neutral it's going to be painful getting there. >> you know what real interest rates are. we can debate the next ten years of inflation. >> which would be. >> 2%, 2.5% >> >> so how easy is the fed in that -- >> i
and that doesn't bode well for the economy in that 17.5% of the economy is consumption portion of the gdp. >> let me ask this question to the table. does anybody know how easy the fed is right now? in this world where there's no interest rate to gauge it by, no nominal rate to judge it by and compare it to, how easy is the fed such that if we talked about the fed removing accommodation, barry, what does that look like? ian, what does that look like? answer that question, how easy is the...